Forecasting of Monkeypox Cases in the World Using the ARIMA Model

While the Covid-19 epidemic in world was not over yet, monkeypox started. The virus spread to more than 59 countries 4 months. Computer-aided forecasting models are needed effectively control this spread. It has been seen previous outbreaks that time-series effective estimating impact of and taking necessary precautions. In study, different Automatic Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) were developed successfully forecast number cases World. Daily confirmed data from 07 May-12 July 2022 used study. May 2022-02 training ARIMA models. prediction performances tested with 03 July-12 2022. According test results, ARIMA(2,2,1) model lowest RMSE=483, MAE=410, MAPE=4.82 determined as most successful model. is good agreement real values an average error value around 5%. for next 7-day forecasted using predicts be 15056 19 2022, actual 15032 proves model's success. This first study estimate method, results show a convenient method cases.